David Trinh

Last Monday the Douglas County DFL convention was held in Alexandria, MN.  I attended, along with seventy-something other delegates, and was elected to the state convention as an uncommitted delegate—though I am strongly leaning towards supporting Paul Thissen.  Overall, Thissen had the strongest showing.  He gave a reasonably good stump speech that drew praise from delegates (although Rukavina arguably bested him for best speaker of the evening) and three of the seven delegates elected to the State Convention currently peg him as their first choice.

The most interesting observation I have of the convention is the incredible overlap there was between Rybak and Thissen supporters.  Two of Thissens’ three delegates indicated that RT was their second choice and both of RT’s delegates said that their second pick would be Thissen.  As someone who is in the former camp, I believe that the reason for this crossover is that both men fit the Twin Cities Democrat mold without coming across as too liberal or too partisan.   The Twin Cities label is important because Iron Range candidates don’t tend to perform well in Douglas County and the moderate aura is crucial because DFLers from this area tend to be more conservative in their temperament, if not also in their politics.  Candidates like John Marty can certainly garner some support—Marty won a delegate and the first  alternate—but loud rhetoric about “making health care a right” just isn’t that compelling in this part of the state.

Ultimately, I’m supporting Thissen because I’m impressed by his work ethic, his fundraising numbers and his intelligence.  Additionally, I have to dock some points from Rybak for his decision to run for reelection as the Mayor of Minneapolis even though he was planning on running for higher office.  That said, RT also some attractive qualities—he got behind Barack Obama early in 2007 and has a strong statewide profile after expertly handling the bridge collapse—that would make me happy to vote for him at the state convention.

Perhaps the most surprising showing, or rather lack thereof, during the convention was that of Margaret Anderson-Kehlllihor.  She failed to win a single delegate despite coming in a respectable fourth in the county’s strawpoll.  It probably didn’t help that MAK failed to show last night—the only other candidate who failed to appear was Susan Gearntner—but I don’t think MAK would have earned any support even if she would have spoken to the convention.  When I pushed people about her candidacy last night, I heard again and again that she had gotten badly rolled by Governor Pawlenty during the last legislative session and many were worried she would be crushed by Republicans in the general.  I can’t say I completely agree with this assessment—messaging mistakes were made last year but they’re not entirely MAK’s fault—but I’m not seeing a lot of energy from her campaign that would indicate she’s capable of mounting a vigorous fall campaign.

The delegate count from Douglas County currently stands at:

Thissen- 3 (2^nd Choice of two, Rybak)
RT Rybak- 2 (2^nd Choice, Thissen)
John Marty- 1
Uncommitted- 1

I have to say that the most underrated political story in Minnesota this week is Paul Thissen’s massive fundraising haul in the governor’s race.  Honestly, a little-known State Rep. who is able to bank as much as the Speaker of the MN State House should be taken very seriously.  Money is, of course, an imperfect metric to measure political success but, as it’s one of the only indicators that DFL delegates have to go off of, it’s an incredibly important one.  Thissen’s impressive warchest and his tireless campaign swings through greater Minnesota are going to make him a top-tier competitor at the state convention April.

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention this very excellent CityPages profile of Rep. Paul Thissen, one of the many DFLers currently vying for the Democratic nomination.  The whole thing is really good journalism and you should definitely go read the piece— if nothing else it will give you an idea of what a grueling ordeal running for statewide office is.  The only commentary I would add is that Thissen comes off as a very cerebral candidate in his profile.  As a DFL loyalist I certainly admire this quality but I must say that in the past Democrats have gotten into a bit of trouble with the electorate for running overly intelligent candidates who lacked the personal polish to sell themselves to voters.  If Thissen is actually a candidate who can bridge these two qualities, and I have to say I’m certainly impressed so far, he’s probably going to be the first DFL governor of Minnesota in twenty years.

Can’t say I entirely agree with this assessment of the GOP field of gubernatorial candidates:

State Rep. Emmer and former State Auditor Anderson are both well-known enough to garner significant support, but both are targeting the same intraparty demographics. If at any point one of these two candidates pulls away and unites the 37-39% who are supporting one of them, that could be a pretty effective counterweight to Seifert’s superior name recognition. (Bold mine-DT)

It’s always been my understanding that Pat Anderson is mostly trying to tap into the Paulite/libertarian segment of the GOP base, while Tom Emmer is more of a mainstream Republican aiming for the type of Republicans likely to vote for frontrunner Marty Seifert.  If this is true, which I’m reasonably confident it is, neither Anderson nor Emmer has access to a universe of voters that could coalesce into some sort of grand anti-Seifert coalition.

What I expect will happen over the next few months is that Emmer will struggle to peel voters away from the Seifert column and Anderson will try to cobble together enough Ron Paul supporters to overwhelm party regulars at poorly attended precinct caucuses.  Personally, I’m not putting much stock in either strategy panning out.

The big news this weekend is the decision by the DFL’s  State Central Committee to move the 2010 DFL convention up to April 23^rd from sometime in early June.  Personally, I’m more than a little miffed by this move because it means that I’ll have to make a special trip back to Minnesota for the convention this coming spring but I understand that this year’s earlier primary meant that an earlier convention was next to impossible to avoid.

The political repercussions of this decision are impossible to predict but it’s likely that an earlier convention will mean two things.  First of all, it’s now going to be very difficult for the two mayors (RT Rybak and Chris Coleman) to mount effective campaigns for the DFL nomination.  Both men were already on a strict timetable because of their inability to announce until after the November elections and now they’ve both lost around twenty percent of the time they could have had to put together statewide campaigns.  I was already skeptical of Rybak or Coleman winning the DFL endorsement because of the limited amount of time they’ll have to spend crisscrossing the state—an even more compressed calendar makes their chances that much slimmer.

Second, an earlier convention (and an earlier primary) means that the DFL will have more time to rebound from what could become a particularly divisive interparty contest.  In past years, I think the DFL could have benefited from having a few extra weeks to rally around the nominee and smooth over hurt feelings bruised during the primary campaign.  Minnesota’s September primary—one of the latest in the nation—used to make this very difficult and I’m glad that Minnesota is finally adding a bit of distance between the primary and the general election.

I’m going to go start looking for plane tickets for my April pilgrimage back to Minnesota—hope Duluth during the spring isn’t as cold as I think it is.

A few weeks ago, at the Douglas Country fair, local DFLers conducted a straw poll to gauge support for the various contenders for the DFL nomination.  The results have finally been tallied (in all fairness, it takes a bit of time to work through 151 IRV ballots), and the results are as follows:

Mark Dayton: 77
RT Rybak: 37
Paul Thissen: 18
Chris Coleman: 3
Steve Kelley: 2
MAK: 1
John Marty: 1

Seventy-seven votes were needed to win a majority; some candidates (Bakk, Gaertner, etc.) were dropped as the IRV process redistributed their support to more competitive candidates.

This poll confirms much of what I thought about the sentiments of Democrats in my corner of Greater Minnesota.  The main takeaway is that Dayton is ahead of the pack, largely because of his superior name recognition this early in the game– numerous people told me that Dayton’s name was the only one they recognized on the ballot.

RT’s strong showing may defy the conventional wisdom, but, as I’ve written before, the mayor of Minneapolis has a strong following among party activists (especially the younger cohort) owing to his early endorsement of Barack Obama, his leadership during the bridge collapse and his general good looks and good humor.  Rybak has the potential to be very competitive in Greater Minnesota, a quality that is certainly unusual among Twin Cities Democrats.

The figures for Dayton and Rybak aside, I think the most notable showing in this poll is Thissen’s.  Honestly, this guy should not be showing this level of support this early in a place like Douglas Country; after all, Thissen is one of dozens of Twin Cities politicians who ordinarily blend together in a mush of names that people from my hometown struggle to remember.  The fact that Thissen is showing this level of support really demonstrates how hard he’s working in Greater Minnesota and I stand by my opinion that Thissen is making inroads in the activist base in towns like Alexandria.

Thissen may ‘only’ have secured eighteen votes but that’s 18(!) times the number of votes that a supposed powerhouse like MAK brought in.  Further, I know that many former-state delegates (e.g. the people most likely to go to the next convention) are starting to lean towards Paul.  If Thissen can cement this support early on, these dedicated party members could help shift the votes of more casual caucusgoers. That, my friends, may be how a little-known State Rep wins the DFL nomination.

I’ve been getting quite a few emails and facebook invites over the past few weeks from the “Draft RT Rybak” movement.  I’ve also heard quite a bit of chatter from friends back home that Rybak’s campaign is going out of its way to encourage its supporters to support this proto-gubernatorial campaign.  Given all this I can only assume that RT is reasonably serious about launching a campaign for the Governor’s mansion sometime shortly after he wins reelection as the mayor of Minneapolis this November.

I’ll admit a few months ago I was positively smitten with the idea of Rybak as the DFL nominee.  After all, he’s smart, charismatic, progressive and has genuine cred with younger voters as a result of his early endorsement of Barack Obama in 2007.  I also have to give him credit for winning two election in Minneapolis (and successfully governing!) without embracing the loony fringe of Minneapolis politics.

Over the past few months though, I’ve begun to have second thoughts about a Rybak run.  In particular, I’ve begun to question whether it’s appropriate for someone to run for another term with the express intention of immediately running for higher office after winning reelection.  Rybak has clearly been planning a run for statewide office for some time now—accordingly, I am dumbfounded as to why Rybak didn’t decide to retire, concentrate on a run for governor, and allow a new leader to begin confronting the challenges facing his city.

I’ll grant that I may not be taking into account the power of Machiavellian politics— why give up a position of power, if you don’t have to? But I can’t help thinking that this particular stratagem is a bit unseemly.  This is certainly an issue that a hypothetical-Rybak campaign is going to have to address if they want to earn the support of this believer in good government.

I have a few quibbles with Dave Mindeman’s DFL gubernatorial rankings but I’m particularly flummoxed by his decision to make Fmr. Senator Mark Dayton the second strongest contender on his list:

2. Mark Dayton (formerly #1): Dayton is still doing all the right things….making lots of grass roots connections and calling in markers from many years with the party. Still you have the feeling that he needs something else…that something is missing. He has been showing some more passion in his speeches and his issues are sharpening. He has made some bold pronouncements on raising taxes on the wealthy and regarding single payer health care. I would hope that he would also be ready to make those arguments in a general election as well.

“Lots of grassroots connections,” really?  To the best of my knowledge Dayton has been running a pretty lethargic campaign—I don’t think he’s done any outreach in Douglas County—and is mostly counting on his high name recognition and fund-raising prowess to carry him across the finish line.  By and large the biggest problem that I think Dayton is going to have though, is explaining why Minnesotans should trust him with another very serious job after he blew off the responsibilities of the last high office the voters of Minnesota elected him to.  Thus far I have heard nothing in the way of an explanation about this from the Dayton campaign and, based on conversations I’ve had with our DFL activists, this is a pretty common concern among DFL regulars.

Color me skeptical that Dayton is really number two in this race; I suspect that honor actually belongs to Rybak or MAK.

I’ve been doing some light Lexis-Nexusing over the past few days trying to learn more about Sen. John Marty (DFL-Roseville), one of the many Democrats vying for the DFL’s nomination in next year’s gubernatorial race.  I’m particularly interested in Marty because I know that he was the DFL nominee for governor in ’94 and went down in a disastrous defeat—a two to one loss—against incumbent Republican Governor Arnie Carlson.     Given that such massive margins of victory are uncommon in Minnesota politics, I’m curious as to what exactly went wrong for Marty in ’94 and what (if any) implications this might have for the coming election.

I haven’t found a good long-form summation of the ‘94 race yet but what I have learned about Sen. Marty so far is that he’s an unabashed liberal in the Paul Wellstone mold (e.g. voted against a resolution condemning flag burning immediately before the ’94 election, capped his own campaign donations at $100, authored sweeping ethics reforms, etc.).  Interestingly enough though, unlike Senator Wellstone, Marty never managed to attain a level of ‘seriousness’ in the eyes of the electorate—it’s my sense that at the end of the day, Marty went down to defeat because he was seen as too goofy (even for a state that elected Jesse Ventura and Al Franken). Whereas, Paul Wellstone somehow managed to transform his quirky side into an image of honesty and genuineness, Marty seems to have always been viewed by voters as an eccentric, sort-of awkward, goofball.

Anyone have any insight into whether or not this is a fair characterization of the unfortunate fate that fell upon John Marty?  Also, is there any indication that his temperament has changed over the past fourteen years?  I suspect the answer to this question will determine whether or not Marty is able to break out of the DFL pack over the next year.

Over the past few weeks I had heard rumors that Rep. Paul Thissen had been making frequent appearances in rural Minnesota and had been impressing outstate DFLers with his keen grasp of policy, his articulate performances on the stump and his dedicated work ethic.  After meeting Rep. Thissen twice in the past ten days, color me impressed as well.

In his appearance before Douglas County DFLers during a meet and greet ten days ago, Thissen deftly fielded questions from DFL activists on a wide range of issues including energy policy, economic fairness and environmental regulation.  While Thissen never used dense wonky language, he provided details in almost all his answers (a refreshing change from the habit of some candidates [read: Entenza] to use rehashed bromides); in particular, I was impressed by Thissen’s answer to a question on economic recovery in which he made references to specific state programs and policy proposals that could spur economic development in rural Minnesota.

Thissen also gave a mature answer on a question concerning the need to boost state revenue in order to prevent crippling cuts to state services.  Although Thissen suggested he would be more inclined as governor to raise the sales tax instead of income taxes—an increase in the state’s sales tax would be much more regressive than an increase in incomes taxes—I still appreciate that he was specific about which mechanism he would use to raise additional revenue.  Unfortunately, like Sen. Bakk, Thissen was a little fuzzy on how he would go about selling this proposal to Minnesota’s voters: this is a question that every DFL candidate for governor needs to do a better job of addressing.

The only policy position on which Thissen and I diverged was his support for moving more decisions and responsibility to the ‘local level.’  In theory I can see how one can make a strong case for more local decision making; after all, local decision makers are supposed to have more knowledge about the needs and concerns of their community.  In practice, however, I think myself (and many other outstate DFLers) fear that local government, which is too often controlled by local conservatives more interested in protecting parochial interests than the public good, tends to make less than optimal policy choices.  I know you can make the case that this sort of political patronage occurs at all levels of government but owing to incredible lack of oversight at the local level (small hometown newspapers don’t exactly revel in muckraking), I think this sort of minor corruption is actually more likely to happen at the lower levels of government than otherwise.  All this said, Thissen seemed to take our pushback on this issue in stride and I hope he incorporates our feedback as his thinking on the devolution of power to local government continues to evolve.

Policy aside, when it comes to politics the Thissen campaign is doing everything right in rural Minnesota.  More often than not, DFL delegates in the 7^th CD get overlooked and ignored by statewide campaigns that prefer to concentrate on the delegate-rich metro instead of outstate Minnesota.  Judging by what I’ve heard from other DFL activists, the Thissen campaign sees things differently and is working rural Minnesota hard.  What the Thissen campaign (and others!) should know is that this strategy is working—almost every member of my county unit has good things to say about Paul—and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if come caucus-time Thissen is one of the few Minneapolis Democrats able to win a large contingent of support in the 7^th.